Will the UK drop in base rate make any difference to the crisis?
On the 6th of November, an unprecedented meeting took place involving the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. At that meeting the bank decided to drop their interest rates by a huge 1.5%, bringing interest the interest rate to the lowest level seen since 1954. The rate currently sits at 3%.
The question is, will this help both ourselves and the economy, both in the short and long term. I am afraid that my answer to this would have to be no, I can't see it happening. The reason behind this is that the lenders will be unwilling to pass on the 1.5% to the public because they were unable to pass on the previous rate cut either. To put it into perspective, their standard variable rate is still at the level that it was more than 6 months ago, go figure.
The main difficulty, not only in the UK but worldwide, is that although the banks have dropped their base rate, the cost of lending from bank to bank has stayed the same. The name used for the rate at which UK financers lend to each other is the LIBOR rate. This acronym stands for the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate. The LIBOR rate has come down very slightly over the last few months, but nothing like the way the base rate has plummeted, so money, although it seems cheaper, still costs almost the same.
The LIBOR rate is dictated by the willingness of the institutions to loan money to each other. Due to the onset of the credit crunch and the fact that the poor lending policies of the institutions have come to light, there has been an unwillingness to lend between the institutions and this has a knock on effect on the LIBOR. They all know about each other's shoddy lending policies of the past and, due to the down turn in the economy, they do not want to expose themselves any further.
You would be forgiven for thinking that the cash inputs of various governments over the world may have gone some way to easing the crisis, but you would be sorely mistaken. For some reason there are rumours circulating that a condition of the cash injection is that lenders must lend a set percentage more next year than the previous one, and so they are preparing themselves for that eventuality, but this may only be rumour. What is for sure is that there is very little money about, and as such the rates are very poor.
I personally think that todays decision will have the effect of boosting consumer confidence, people will think that low base rates can only mean things are going to get better. That said they will soon realise this may not actually be the case, especially if their particular lender does not pass that increase on to them within their own mortgage. That said commercial finance should get cheaper as most commercial finance deals are based as a percentage over base rates so any deals that have been done in the past will benefit from this cut.
What is unusual though is that many commercial lenders have all of a sudden increased their over base rate levels, or have eliminated their levels completely. This is to offset any risk of money loss when such a change in the base rate is put forward. It seems odd that they should react so quickly and shrewdly. Did they know the change was coming perhaps? Impossible to say....or prove.
So what effect will the drop actually have? In the short term, probably very little effect at all. Nevertheless, I would like to think that over the coming months we will see the positive effect trickle down bit by bit into the markets. If it doesn't reach Joe Public, and doesn't reach sooner rather than later, we may have to face the possibility of being in some very, very serious financial trouble indeed. Fingers crossed then!
The question is, will this help both ourselves and the economy, both in the short and long term. I am afraid that my answer to this would have to be no, I can't see it happening. The reason behind this is that the lenders will be unwilling to pass on the 1.5% to the public because they were unable to pass on the previous rate cut either. To put it into perspective, their standard variable rate is still at the level that it was more than 6 months ago, go figure.
The main difficulty, not only in the UK but worldwide, is that although the banks have dropped their base rate, the cost of lending from bank to bank has stayed the same. The name used for the rate at which UK financers lend to each other is the LIBOR rate. This acronym stands for the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate. The LIBOR rate has come down very slightly over the last few months, but nothing like the way the base rate has plummeted, so money, although it seems cheaper, still costs almost the same.
The LIBOR rate is dictated by the willingness of the institutions to loan money to each other. Due to the onset of the credit crunch and the fact that the poor lending policies of the institutions have come to light, there has been an unwillingness to lend between the institutions and this has a knock on effect on the LIBOR. They all know about each other's shoddy lending policies of the past and, due to the down turn in the economy, they do not want to expose themselves any further.
You would be forgiven for thinking that the cash inputs of various governments over the world may have gone some way to easing the crisis, but you would be sorely mistaken. For some reason there are rumours circulating that a condition of the cash injection is that lenders must lend a set percentage more next year than the previous one, and so they are preparing themselves for that eventuality, but this may only be rumour. What is for sure is that there is very little money about, and as such the rates are very poor.
I personally think that todays decision will have the effect of boosting consumer confidence, people will think that low base rates can only mean things are going to get better. That said they will soon realise this may not actually be the case, especially if their particular lender does not pass that increase on to them within their own mortgage. That said commercial finance should get cheaper as most commercial finance deals are based as a percentage over base rates so any deals that have been done in the past will benefit from this cut.
What is unusual though is that many commercial lenders have all of a sudden increased their over base rate levels, or have eliminated their levels completely. This is to offset any risk of money loss when such a change in the base rate is put forward. It seems odd that they should react so quickly and shrewdly. Did they know the change was coming perhaps? Impossible to say....or prove.
So what effect will the drop actually have? In the short term, probably very little effect at all. Nevertheless, I would like to think that over the coming months we will see the positive effect trickle down bit by bit into the markets. If it doesn't reach Joe Public, and doesn't reach sooner rather than later, we may have to face the possibility of being in some very, very serious financial trouble indeed. Fingers crossed then!
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